Australian dollar hotspots
AUD / USD traded at the lowest annual fresh level (0.7417) Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) interest rate decision as governor Philip Lowe defends the advanced monetary policy guidelines and a move below the relative strength index (RSI) of 30 is likely to be accompanied by a further depreciation of the exchange rate, as in the previous month.
AUD / USD trades fresh until 2021 as the RBA defines full employment
AUD/USD extends the series of lower ups and downs from the beginning of this week as RBA Governor LoweUnemployment is likely to remain low in quarters for the Australian economy to be considered fully employed“Speaking at the same time Queensland Economic Society.
As a result, Lowe insists that the RBAprovide the continued financial support that the economy needs in the transition from recovery to enlargement“Where the head of the central bank claimed that”we will review the size of bond purchases again at our november meetingAs the Bureau relies on its non-standard means to achieve its policy objectives.
The comments indicate that the RBA is a pre-determined course, as Lowe emphasizes that “wWe want to see the results before changing interest ratesAnd the central bank appears to be maintaining the current monetary policy stance with its next interest rate decision on 3 August as follows:Until 2024, inflation will remain stable at 2-3 percent.“
Until then, it remains to be seen whether the decline from the February peak (0.8007) will turn out to be a – Change in AUD / USD behavior or correction of a broader trend between RBA and RBA deviations Federal Reserve, but the recent change in retail trade may coincide further depreciation of the Australian dollar such as the behavior seen earlier this year.
The IG customer mood report shows 63.56% of traders are now network long AUD / USD, traders with a long and short relationship stands from 1.74 to 1 p.m.
The number of net long traders is 5.02% higher than yesterday and 5.80% less than last week, while the number of net short traders is 4.68% lower than yesterday and 11.71% lower than last week. The decline in the net position has provided little relief from the downturn in retail sales, as 50.81% of traders had a net long AUD / USD last week, while the decline in the short interest rate is due to the low exchange rate in July (0.7417).
That being said weak AUD / USD may continue coincides with changes in retail effects, such as the behavior seen earlier this yearand threatening developments in the year relative strength index (RSI) may indicate the pace of bear momentum collection tracks established downward trend May and is approaching the territory sold.
AUD / USD daily schedule
Source: Trading View
- Keep in mind that head-and-shoulder formation developed earlier this year as AUD / USD traded at its lowest level in April 2021 (0.7532), but the exchange rate denied a major turnaround. pattern after unsuccessful attempts to close the neckline from about 0.7560 (50% expansion) to 0.7570 (78.6% retracement).
- However, for the first time in more than a year, the AUD / USD is below the 200-day SMA (0.7572), with the exchange rate depressing Relative Strength Index (RSI) territory sold for the first time after March 2020.
- Lchanging developments in Africa RSI may show the pace of downward trend collection as it follows the downward trend in May, with movement in the oscillator below 30 it is likely to be accompanied by a further depreciation of the exchange rate, such as price action slast month.
- Close below Fibonacci overlaps about 0.7440 (extension 23.6%) to 0.7500 (50% retracement) leads radar 0.7370 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7380 (61.8% retracement) area, moving below the lowest level in December 2020 (0.7338), opening 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) 0 , 7210 (78.6% retracement) area.
– Written by currency strategist David Song
Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong