Gold (XAU / USD) analysis, price and chart
- Gold struggles to maintain short-term support for the channel.
- Retailers remain strong for a long time, reducing their short positions.
The recent recovery in gold is likely to await a fresh headwind next week, putting pressure on short-term trend support. After reaching several-month lows at the end of June, gold has risen, forming a short-term uptrend channel where the precious metal is currently trading at just over $ 1,800 / ounce. The support of the medium-term channel formed between the end of March and the middle of June brought sharp sales from 1878 dollars / ounce. up to $ 1,761 / oz. just under 50% of the Fibonacci retracement level at $ 1,764 / oz.
Gold has recently been supported by turmoil in the US Treasury market, where yields have fallen to several-month lows. The 10-year-old US Treasury printed at 1.25% yesterday before rising back above 1.30% as traders and investors tried to cover their short positions. Next week, the US Treasury market will be under scrutiny if three, ten and 30-year Treasuries are put up for sale in the first half of the week. Although short-term UST should be relatively easy, 38-year 10-year bonds (Monday) and 24 billion 30-year bonds (Tuesday) may be a little more complicated. If the market decides to raise yields before these auctions to make them more attractive, it will weigh on gold and push down the price of the precious metal. With US sales on longer dates on Tuesday, the latest US inflation figures may also be headwind. Although U.S. inflation is expected to ease – the main m / m is projected at 0.4% compared to 0.7% in May, at each higher step it can be seen that traders are demanding additional returns to add 30-year-old US to their books.
The sentiment of IG traders, see below, also shows that retail has cut its short positions over the past week, leaving them heavily in gold. A contradictory look at this suggests that gold may move lower.
Gold daily price chart (September 2020 – July 9, 2021)
Customer mood data show 87.13% of traders are net long, the ratio of long to short traders is 6.77: 1. The number of net long traders is 1.20% lower than yesterday and 1.53% lower than last week, while the number of net-short traders is 16.70% lower than yesterday and 10.15% lower than last week.
We usually view the contradictory situation of the crowd, and the fact that traders are net long indicates a continuing fall in the price of gold.Traders are even longer yesterday and last week, and the combination of the current mood and recent changes gives us a stronger reason for gold bears to trade
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