Japanese Yen, USD / JPY, AUD / JPY, GBP / JPY, Technical Analysis, Retailer Positioning – Callpoints
- Retailers are increasingly betting Japanese yen may rise
- Negative exposure increases during the year USD / JPY, AUD / JPY, GBP / JPY
- This is measured by the IGCS, which can sometimes be a controversial indicator
According to the IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), retailers seem to be increasingly betting that the Japanese yen may start to appreciate. Negative exposure in USD/ JPY, AUD/ JPY and GBP/ JPY is on the rise. IGCS can sometimes be a controversial indicator. This means that if this positioning trend continues, the yen may be vulnerable. See last week’s sites for more information recording at my IGCS webinar.
USD / JPY Sentiment Outlook – bullish
The IGCS gauge means that about 50% of retailers have a net length of USD / JPY. Reverse exposure has decreased by 6.36% and 2.77% per day and per week, respectively. With this in mind, the combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading policy.
USD / JPY is resting on growing support since the beginning of this year. The pair has tried to find a negative consequence as the 50-day Easy Moving Average (SMA) maintained its dominant upward focus. The former trend line may come into play as new resistance, leading prices back lower. Immediate support appears to be 109.53.
USD / JPY daily card
AUD / JPY mood outlook – bullish
The IGCS gauge means that about 40% of retailers have a net length of AUD / JPY. Exposure to the minus sign increased by 4.72% and 13.68% per day and week, respectively. In fact, traders have net-short tips on prices may prices. The combination of this and recent mood swings further exacerbates the bullish contrarian trading cause.
AUD / JPY will continue to consolidate above the main support zone 81.323 – 81.987, trying to expand losses from the peak in May. The decline between 20-50 day SMAs indicates a short-term decline due to technical bias. However, the 200-day SMA is approaching and may be the mainstay to restore the dominant uptrend.
AUD / JPY daily card
GBP / JPY Sentiment Outlook – bullish
The IGCS gauge means that about 36% of retail investors have a net GBP / JPY. Exposure to the minus sign increased by 3.56% and 6.08% daily and weekly, respectively. The fact that traders are short suggests that prices may continue to rise. In addition, recent mood swings offer a stronger bullish contrarian trading policy.
GBP / JPY may be vulnerable to the May peak after the decline between the 20-day and 50-day SMAs has fallen. If the damage persists, the support zone will be cleaned from 150.67 to 151.32. This would reveal ranges from 148.53 to 149.38. Increasing support from 2020 may also come into play, restoring the prevailing rise.
GBP / JPY daily card
* IG customer mood charts and positioning data used from July 13thth Report
– Written by Daniel Dubrovsky Strategist to DailyFX.com
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