OVERVIEW OF THE MACRO SETTING:
- Earnings per share data were strong; ongoing rocky 3Q’21
- U.S. economic data is starting to sour, but the delta option will cover the Fed
- US Treasury interest rates, US real yields fall to their lowest levels, pulling down DXY Index
SUMMER DOG DAYS
This week’s The Macro Setup, featuring Dan Nathan and Guy Adami, summed up the earnings of US companies in the last round, which turned out better than expected. However, with the rise of the delta option, there may be problems that may increase revenue expectations for at least 3Q’21, which is largely in line with seasonal data suggesting that the bull market is the most difficult to trade in the environment in the average four months of year 2.
Speaking of the rise of the delta option, it becomes clearer that the Federal Reserve is using development as a tool to keep incentives flowing in the near future. July FOMC The meeting hinted that a decline could be expected in the end, but interest markets seem convinced that this does not mean an accelerated schedule of interest rate increases soon. Fall in commodity prices – from lumber to copper, to oil – show that inflationary pressures are easing well.
All this changes the difficult situation for the US dollar. The failed breakthrough at the end of July, combined with lower US Treasury interest rates – as well as record low US real yields – suggests that there may be tougher sledding behind the green back. What does goldThe situation is all the more worrying: if gold prices cannot rally in this environment, then what does it take to light a fire under precious metals?
* Dan Nathan, Guy Adam and my comment on the US dollar (via the DXY index) US S&P 500, including gold prices, please watch the video at the top of this article.
CARDS OF THE WEEK
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE GOLD PRICE: DAILY CARD (AUGUST 2020 – AUGUST 2021) (TABLE 1)
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DXY INDEX PRICE: DAILY MAP (AUGUST 2020 – AUGUST 2021) (TABLE 2)
GBP / USD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: AGENDA (DECEMBER 2020 – AUGUST 2021) (TABLE 3)
– Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist