“It’s a big deal. The report is being used by governments and industry everywhere to understand the threats ahead,” said Stephanie Spera, associate professor of geography and the environment at the University of Richmond. in the commentary.
The report could have an impact on President Joe Biden’s climate policy agenda for infrastructure investment, electric vehicles and green jobs, which is which has lost some teeth in bilateral negotiations with a narrowly divided Congress, but may re-emerge. And the UN report could affect commodity markets and the expanding market for environmental ETFs and more.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last surrendered such calculations in 2013.
The latest venture has 234 authors who have to synthesize more than 14,000 studies and then try to summarize the report to policy makers in a group of 195 Member States. There are also differences of opinion, but the summary is considered to be the main driver of the policy.
The report could feed into action at the UN climate summit in Glasgow in November, where Member States should make new commitments to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
“This report makes it perfectly clear what the state of science is and throws the ball back into government camps for action,” said Corinne Le Quéré, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK. spoke Nature edition.
Richmond Spera and others stress that the IPCC reports are impartial. Each IPCC country can nominate researchers of its choice, although these candidates will be considered.
The IPCC does not tell governments what to do. It aims to provide up-to-date knowledge on climate change, its future risks and options for reducing the rate of warming.
However, the IPCC got an idea of the political components in 2018, when the world’s largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia
but the economic giant, which has also expanded to include renewable energy and carbon capture, tried at the last minute to block the use of language by IPCC bodies. Saudi Arabia wanted to reduce the more aggressive and increasingly popular 1.5 ° C warming target compared to the 2 ° C target of the 2015 Paris climate talks.
Saudi Arabia, leading a group of 20 members last year, pushed its idea of a carbon-carbon economy into a G-20 energy and climate communiqué. Saudis emphasize the removal of carbon after burning oil and gas, which will further reduce the use of carbon-based fuels.
During the last IPCC, the US, which withdrew from the Paris Agreement under then-President Trump, issued a formal statement saying it did not approve the 2018 report. President Biden returned the voluntary Paris Agreement to the United States.
When the countries signed in Paris, they promised to keep warming “well below” 2 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels, while they “tried to keep” it at 1.5 ° C. It was not clear at that time what lengths were needed to achieve a more ambitious goal. Thus, in the language of diplomacy, governments called on the IPCC to be considered.
Keeping the world at 1.5 ° C would require countries to reduce their CO But even this argument has its opponents; According to some estimates, the world is warming by almost 3 ° C if governments do not do more to limit their emissions.
Most major emissions from China to the US have promised a path to a net emissions target; for example, the US by 2050 and China by 2060. However, at the end of July – the deadline for submitting the most recent detailed emission reduction plans – only 110 countries had set their official targets for major UN economies, including China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa, have not yet met the requirements of the Paris Agreement, which some Republicans say is detrimental to US interests.
However, with the release on Monday, all countries may face new urgency.
“Science tells us that in order to limit the worst effects of climate change, we need to set a target of zero as soon as possible, but no later than 2050, and we need urgent short-term efforts to reduce CO2 emissions in this decade,” said Nathan Cooper, Head of the World Economic Forum’s Climate Action Platform, Partnership and Inclusion Strategy.
“In addition, there is a growing moral and economic need to respond to the consequences of climate change, which we are already witnessing. The poorest communities are often the ones who contribute the least to climate change, but are the most vulnerable to its consequences, ”said Cooper.
One area of research in Monday’s report could focus on climate sensitivity. It is an indicator of projected long-term warming that would occur with carbon dioxide in the planet’s atmosphere.2 level doubled compared to pre-industrial levels. Climate sensitivity estimates have long been around 1.5-4.5 ° C, but scientists believe they have a breakthrough in narrowing this range.
The focus of the new edition may also emphasize sea level rise. IPCC published a special report in 2019 which showed that the average global sea level will increase by 2100 depending on emissions between 0.3 meters and 1.1 meters. This is only slightly higher than previous forecasts, but the report voted for other experts who said a 2-meter rise could not be ruled out.
Although the report is designed to be a very technical draft, it is important to remember that it comes at a time when global headlines about devastating fires, droughts, floods and more extreme weather conditions have consistently felt alongside COVID-19 issues.
“Why should you care? Look around, ”said Spera. “So far, 2021 has brought deadly extreme weather events around the world, from large-scale forest fires to extreme heat, excessive rainfall and flash floods. Such events are becoming more common in a warming world. “
“Don’t expect an optimistic picture from the forthcoming report,” he said.