Australian dollar Talking points
AUD / USD will repay the advance from the beginning of the month after the better-than-expected US payrollNFP) and the exchange rate may trade at annual low levels in the second half of 2021, the broader trend appears to be reversing.
Technical forecast for the Australian dollar: a bear
Remember that head shoulders in the first half of 2021 as AUD /USD was sold at an annual low of 0.7532 in April, but the exchange rate denied the key reversal pattern after unsuccessful attempts to close the neck below 0.7560 (50% expansion) to 0.7570 (78.6% retracement).
Source: Trading View
Nevertheless, the AUD / USD broke its neck around June in order to trade for the first time in more than a year, the 200-day SMA (0.7599), with the fall in the exchange rate pushing the relative strength index (RSI) over the territory sold. for the first time since March 2020.
In turn, the 50-day SMA (0.7517) has turned negative in the second half of 2021, with the downward trend in the moving average casting a sharp outlook on AUD / USD as it trades to a fresh annual low of 0.7289 in July.
However, the lack of impulse to climb above Fibonacci overlap has brought AUD / USD below 0.7370 (38.2% expansion) below 0.7380 (38.2% expansion) to around 0.7370 (38.2% expansion) below 0.7380 (61, 8% retracement), and the failure to protect the July slump (0.7289) could open 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7210 (78.6% retracement) as the broader trend appears to have reversed.
– Written by David Song, currency strategist
Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong