EUR / USD Rate Talking Points
EUR / USD seems to be protecting the March slump (1.1704) as it stops a series of eight – day losses and the exchange rate may achieve a larger recovery in the near term as it follows the range from the first half of the year.
EUR / USD protects the low price in March despite the rhetoric of the Hawkish Fed
EUR/USD recovers from new monthly low (1,1706) US Consumer Price Index (CPI) pulls the Greenback, with the exchange rate carving a lightning candle of the day even as more and more federal reserve officials take on a convex tone.
In an interview with the Financial Times, the president of the San Francisco Fed said Mary Dalywho votes Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stressed this year that “it is appropriate to start discussing the re-election of accommodation levelsAnd calls for the central bank to be able to “call back” its asset purchases by the end of the year against the backdrop of continued economic recovery.
The comments largely repeat recent remarks President of the Boston Central Bank Eric Rosengren As the voting member of the FOMC by 2022 sees the possibility of ending emergency measures this fall, and the EUR / USD can expect a headwind The Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium is scheduled for August 26-28 as the FOMC seems to be shifting in time this year.
Nevertheless, EUR / USD may continue to monitor the range from the first half of the year seems to be defending the March slump (1.1704)and a stronger exchange rate recovery could curb retail sentiment, as was observed earlier this year.
The IG customer feelings report shows 67.80% of traders are now net length EUR / USD, traders with a long and short relationship standing 2.11 to 1 p.m.
The number of traders in net length is 3.23% higher than yesterday and 35.24% higher than last week, while the number of short traders is 2.09% lower than yesterday and 16.69% lower than last week. Rising net long-term interest rates have encouraged crowding-out: 51.18% of traders had net lengths in EUR / USD at the end of last month, while a decline in the net short position may be a function of profit-taking. the exchange rate suspends a series of eight-day losses.
That being said, EUR / USD may continue protect Lowest time of March (1.1704) even if a growing number of Fed officials show a greater willingness to reduce their emergency measures, and the exchange rate may follow the range from the first half of the year until the FOMC develops a detailed exit strategy.
EUR / USD exchange rate daily schedule
Source: Trading View
- EUR / USD trades for the first time since April with a SMA of less than 200 days (1.2006), as the progress of the lowest level in March (1.1704) did not pass the highest test in January (1.2350), but Relative Strength Index (RSI)prices seem to vary breaks out of the downward trend from the beginning of this year, where the oscillator is held over the sold territory even though the exchange rate marked the first eight-day series of losses since 2018.
- EUR / USD seems protective March Low (1,1704) as it carves an upward rise in the field, with a lack of momentum to break / close below 1.1700 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1710 (retracement) pushing the exchange rate towards 1.1760 (38.2% expansion) region.
- Need a pause / close above 1.1760 (expansion 38.2%) bring the radar to an area of 1.1810 (61.8% retracement), with the next area of interest to be approx 1.1860 (78.6% expansion).
- Moving over the 50-day SMA (1.1890) opens Fibonacci overlap about 1.1920 (expansion 78.6%) to 1.1970 (23.6%), with the next area of interest arriving 1.2010 (100% enlargement).
– Written by David Song, currency strategist
Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong