FX Weekly Preview Overview:
- The turnaround in mid-August reveals a wealth of inflation-related data data from Canada, the euro area, the United Kingdom and Japan.
- Cefforts to remove incentives from national banks is in focus as the New Zealand Reserve Bank in August is expected to raise interest rates, while in July FOMC The minutes of the meeting describe the various conditions for completing the FED QE program.
- In general, recent changes retailer positioning recommend that US dollar is a confusing prejudice.
Please visit for next week DailyFX economic calendar.
WEDNESDAY 02:00 GMT | NZD RESERVE BANK NEW SEA DECISION
Weeks from July RBNZ policy continued production several strong economic data reports, and now appears The New Zealand economy has come far enough to justify discussions about rising interest rates. In fact, according to New Zealand’s overnight index swaps, a fully discounted rate increase by the markets of 25 basis points per second, with a 50 percentage point probability of an 18% increase in interest rates. The OIS curve is very embarrassing, as at the next RBNZ meeting in October, there is a 77% chance of boosting 25-bps again.The New Zealand Dollar maintains the mantle of being the weakest central bank among the major currencies; however, ongoing guidance is needed to fulfill this promise.
WEDNESDAY 06:00 GMT | GBP inflation rate (JUL)
The another the post-Haldane inflation report will be published this week. According to a Bloomberg News study, it is the title July UK inflation rate (CPI) arrives at +0.3% from +0.5% (m / m) and +2.3% from +2.5% (ice), at the same time core inflation rate (eg–energy and food) with a maturity of +2.2% from + 2.3% (and / or). Leaving aside another surprise, the easing of inflationary pressures is unlikely to support this British pound.
WEDNESDAY 09:00 GMT | EUR basic inflation rate FINAL (JUL)
According to a Bloomberg News study, July Core inflation rate in the euro area (final CPI) low moderation in July from + 0.7% to + 0.9% (and / or). Restrictions on economic activity in parts of Europe due to the rapid spread of the delta option have affected Euro in recent weeks. It was not until July that President Christine Lagarde noted that the policy was “permanently adaptive”, reducing the release of economic data in the near future. As in the past few weeks, especially in less liquid markets, there are only a significant deviation from the assessment likely to cause a significant movement in EUR crosses.
WEDNESDAY 12:30 GMT | CAD INFLATION RATE (JUL)
According to a Bloomberg News study, July Canada’s inflation rate (CPI) is projected to rise to +3.4% from +3.1% (y / y), while the main reading is at +2.6% from +2.7% (ice). They are still above the BOC MTO of + 2%, but are unlikely to have a significant impact on policy outcomes, given that Bank of Canada is is already aware of the slowdown in its stock purchase program. By now, it seems unlikely that higher inflation will lead to greater speculative zeal for poorer BOC in the near future.
WEDNESDAY 14:00 GMT | USD JULY FOMC MEETING MINUTES
Following the FOMC meeting in July and in the light of the increase in the number of US delta options, traders began to lower their expectations of a more regrettable federal reserve. However, the strong US non-farm payroll in July, combined with the combined effect of the US July Inflation Report (CPI), has led to changes in both market expectations and the language used so far by FOMC policymakers. The July FOMC minutes are likely to reflect a less convex position than what various FOMC officials said in August.
– Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist