Australian dollar hotspots
AUD / USD falls to its lowest level every year (0.7238) as it prolongs the decline afterwards Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Protocoland the exchange rate may continue to repay the advance from its lowest level in November 2020 (0.6991) as it trades within a declining channel.
AUD / USD exchange rate tracks in a declining channel in the AU employment report
AUD/USD remains under pressure as the RBA protocol warns that “tcurrent virus outbreaks and outages had interrupted recovery, ”And the exchange rate can expect another decline The Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium is scheduled for August 26-28 in the middle of different monetary policies.
The RBA appears to be on a pre-set exchange rate, as the central bank intendscontinue the bond purchase program at a reduced rate of $ 4 billion per week once the second $ 100 billion purchase is completed in September 2021 “and the governor Philip Lowe and Co are in no hurry to change gears becauseThe Bureau would be prepared to react to further bad news in the field of health care if it leads to a major setback for the economic recovery.. “
As a result, the update of Australia’s employment report could deter the RBA from making its next interest rate decision on 7 September, as the economy is expected to lose 46.2,000 jobs in July and restrictions in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole may continue. growing number of AUD / USD Federal Reserve officials show greater willingness to reduce the quantitative mitigation program.
In turn, decrease compared to the peak in February (0.8007) shows change in the broader trend as AUD / USD remains below the 200-day SMA (0.7605) for the first time in more than a year, but a further depreciation of the exchange rate could contribute to a decline in retail sentiment, as at the beginning of this year.
The IG customer feelings report shows 66.96% of traders are now net length AUD / USD, relationship between long and short traders standing 2.03 to 1.
The number of traders online is 6.10% higher than yesterday and 12.85% higher than last week, while the number of short traders is 2.58% lower than yesterday and 17.27% lower than last week. The rise in net long-term interest rates has contributed to crowding-out, with 64.08% of traders having net long AUD / USD last week, while the decline in the net short position may be due to profit-taking as the exchange rate falls a fresh low per year (0.7238).
That being said, AUD / USD repayment of the advance may continue from the lowest level in November 2020 (0.6991) as it tradesand the update of Australia’s employment report could keep the exchange rate under pressure, as job growth is expected to slow for the second time this year.
Daily schedule of AUD / USD exchange rate
Source: Trading View
- The broader trend in AUD / USD seems to be changing located in an SMA of less than 200 days (0.7605) for the first time in more than a year, the fall in the exchange rate pushed the relative strength index (RSI) over the territory sold for the first time since March 2020.
- At the same time, the 50-day SMA (0.7451) has seen a negative rise as AUD / USD trades in a declining channel with an interrupt / close below 0.7290 (23.6% expansion), leading to a Fibonacci overlap of around 0, 7189 (61,8)% retracement) to 0.7210 (78,6% retracement) on the radar.
- The next area of interest is around 0.7130 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7140 (23.6% expansion), followed by 0.7060 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) .
– Written by David Song, currency strategist
Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong