Australian Dollar, AUD / USD, Kabul, Retail, RBA, FED – Call Points
- The attack on Afghanistan is sending a geopolitical shock through the markets
- Australian retail on deck for today’s economic paper
- AUD / USD ends the setback of the Bearish Engulfing candlestick
Friday ‘s outlook for Asia – Pacific
Risk sensitive Australian dollar interrupted the 3-day winning streak versus US dollar dozens of people were killed after the Kabul attack, including twelve U.S. officials. The event sent a wave of geopolitical shocks in the financial markets, ending a wide accumulation of risks, which led to a jump in US stock indices and commodities. Technologically difficult Nasdaq The 100 index moved 0.59% lower during the New York trading session.
Haven flows with help USD but also the hawk talk of several members of the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the Governor of the Central Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, justified his support for reducing the balance sheet. Louis Federation President Jim Bullard and Kansas City Federation President Esther George joined Bullard to form the Gold Choir.
Australia’s preliminary July retail report is likely to be the risk of today’s first possible event. According to a Bloomberg study, analysts expect the month-to-month figure to exceed wires by -2.5%. This would mark the second consecutive lower month when printing closely monitored data. A low consensus will be reached during the ongoing closures in Australia as Covid cases continue to grow at an alarming rate.
The Australian dollar will end this month with a loss against Greenback, marking the third consecutive monthly decline in a major currency pair. Aussie Dollar traders’ rosy outlook on the Australian economy fell back in June as the well-communicated version of Delta Covid outperformed the government’s strict method of restraint.
Economic costs have contributed to tightening RBA policy. The planned balance sheet reduction may be suspended at next month’s policy meeting. In the meantime, of course, the Fed looks to see some reduction in its balance sheet next month, although that could happen right this weekend when Fed Chairman Powell talks about Jackson Hole.
AUD / USD technical outlook:
The declining candlestick marked a recent decline in AUD / USD with resistance to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement. The downward momentum may increase as the MACD line approaches below the oscillator centerline, which is a harsh signal. However, 38.2% Fib can provide support if prices continue to fall. Alternatively, the setback may increase 61.8% Fib resistance.
AUD / USD2-hour chart
The chart has been created TradingView
Australian dollar trading resources
– Written by Thomas Westwater, DailyFX.com analyst
Be in touch Thomas, use the comments section below, or @FxWestwaterTwitter