EUR /USD: The late rise of Powell’s long-awaited Jackson Hole speech on Friday did not send a significant signal of a downgrade compared to a number of the golden Fedspeak heading for Powell’s remarks. The USD, in turn, succumbs to the typical “buy rumor, sell fact” sale, pushing the EUR / USD sample to 1.1800. Nevertheless, although there was no signal, President Powell confirmed that it might be appropriate to reduce this year, depending on the forthcoming release of key data, in particular next week’s activity report. A figure similar to the two previous reports (850,000 in June and 943,000 in July) is likely to give the green light that significant progress has been made in the area of jobs, thus limiting the negative impact. Although German data will be in the table next week, US first-level data will take precedence over ISM printouts and the above NFP report. Although the German CPI will be published next week, it is worth noting that the latest ECB protocols signaled upside risks to the bank’s inflation projections.
EUR / USD technology: Durability 1.1800, 1.1813 (50DMA), support 1.1750 and 1.1725.
EUR / USD chart: daily schedule
EUR / CHF Bottom cutting
EUR / CHF: The cross is operating at the short-term bottom level of 1.0700, having published its strongest weekly advance since mid-June. The 1.0700 handle also appears to be a SNB soft line in the sand, given the recent accumulation of horizons (commonly used as an SNB FX intervention signal). As has been said, the cross needs to expand its upward movement. By now, the strategy would rise to 1.0700.
EUR / CHF vs German 10 year return