Nasdaq 100, Fed, Jackson Hole, non-farm payroll-week ahead
- Nasdaq 100 climbed to record levels, 16,000 ahead
- Technical stocks continued to boost Fedi Jackson Hole’s profits
- U.S. farm payrolls are focused, will soft printing increase on the Nasdaq?
The Nasdaq 100 continues the dominant uptrend after Jackson Hole
The Nasdaq 100 continued its dominant uptrend from 2020, when the new trading week began, approaching 16,000. There, Fed chairman Jerome Powell disappointed investors looking for more obscure signals. Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures converged.
Powell’s speech could have been interpreted relatively terribly in the context labor market. Ultimately, the central bank has two mandates. Although inflation is above target and is expected to be temporary, Powell noted that no significant progress had yet been made on employment.
Although markets may slowly accept the reality that balance sheet narrowing is just around the corner, the likelihood of a rise in interest rates remains a long way off. The chart below shows the rise of the Nasdaq 100 as the Fed’s interest rate stakes in December 2022 weakened after Jackson Hole. As such, growth-oriented equities were likely to continue to use the central bank’s patient monetary policy tone.
It also puts weight on this week’s non-farm payroll reports. A strong data flow may revive faster-than-expected expectations. Does it require too much? According to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, US data tends to perform poorly compared to economists’ expectations. This suggests that analysts overestimate the country’s potential for health and resilience. This could open the door to a softer job report, emphasizing Powell’s tone in the job market, keeping the Fed’s miserable stakes away.
Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis
A record push on the Nasdaq 100 has pushed it higher than the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension 15485.50. Immediate resistance appears to be a 61.8% extension point 15731. Above this, the price is 786% at 16080.66. At a lower turn, keep a close eye on the former resistance zone 14996 – 15172. This may come into play as a new support. Further distribution on the basis of 20- and 50-periodic moving averages may open the door for a turn of material. The July low of 14445 could then act as a critical support.
– Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist For DailyFX.com
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