EUR / USD price, chart and analysis
- US dollar short-term strength burdens EUR / USD.
- The ECB meeting contains the latest growth and inflation forecasts.
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The The US dollar is now rising above the green back to challenge short-term resistance just 10 ticks away. The double-dip of the daily DXY at around 92.80 is unlikely to stop further up the dollar basket, but may act as a short-term brake in subsequent sessions. The rebound in the US dollar last Friday in the US Jobs Report has been strong, although the move was helped by the announcement of an over-sale of the US dollar. This strength of the dollar is currently being seen in various countries USD-pairs, including EUR/ USD.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Price Chart September 7, 2021
The ECB’s monetary policy meeting will take place on Thursday also includes closely monitored quarterly growth and inflation forecasts for the coming months. It is expected that GDP forecasts may be raised, while the inflation forecast is close to current forecasts, despite the fact that price pressures have recently reached a 10-year high. The central bank intends to review the current inflation rate as temporary, although the ECB may be cautious, fearing that it may soon move to higher wage demands.
Leaving aside the staff forecasts, tomorrow’s main focus will be on the central bank’s various bond-buying programs and possible adjustments. The Asset Purchase Program (APP) will remain intact, while the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) may reduce the rate of bond purchases through technical adjustment. Recent comments from several ECB members have shown that if growth and inflation remain higher, the program can gradually return to normal, ending in March 2022, with monthly bond purchases falling from € 80 to € 60-70 billion. billion.
The euro is on the backfoot against the US dollar now, although any tips at tomorrow’s post-announcement press conference may begin to pull back a couple of recent weaknesses. On the contrary, with the current loose monetary policy, the EUR / USD is likely to fall below 1.1800, leaving the next support levels at 1.1782 and 1.1704 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
EURO (EUR / USD) Daily price chart September 8, 2021
Details of retailers show41.20% of traders are short and the ratio of short to long traders is 1.43-1.The number of traders in net length is 1.32% lower than yesterday and 14.15% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.37% lower than yesterday and 14.99% higher than last week.
We usually take the opposite view to the mood of the crowd, and the fact that traders are short indicates an increase in EUR / USD prices.Positioning is less short than yesterday, but more network-short than last week. The combination of the current mood and recent changes gives us a further mixed in EUR / USD trading.
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