New Zealand Dollar, NZD / USD, Crude Oil, Electronic Retail Card Spending – Call Points
- New Zealand Dollar persists despite being generally weaker US dollar
- Raw and Brent oil prices will fall after China releases oil reserves
- New Zealand electronic retail card spending fell in August
- NZD / USD in view of the 200-day SMA after moderate losses at the beginning of the week
Friday’s forecast for Asia-Pacific
The risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar is virtually unchanged against the US dollar at the start of trading with APAC. NZD /USD will remain more than 0.5% lower this week after risk aversion in the markets. The recent weakness of the US dollar is likely to be the main force helping to keep the currency pair afloat, as the DXY index fell 0.20% in trading at the beginning of the APAC. Small profit in AUD / JPY suggests that risk-taking has returned. However, Dow Jones industrial average fell in New York trading.
On top On Thursday, Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), assured the markets that a simple monetary policy will remain for the time being. However, the ECB withdrew from its asset purchase program. Purchases of PEPP are expected to slow moderately below the current $ 95 billion per month. The central bank’s updated forecasts show that inflation will remain below the long-term target Euro A record multi-year price increase in the region.
Crude oil and Brent oil benchmarks traded volatile overnight. China freed oil from its strategic reserves. This step is an interesting intervention if China’s goal seems to be aimed at curbing price increases. Rising prices have put pressure on Chinese factories, including oil refineries. Thursday’s CPI and PPI figures showed a 9.5% increase in factory prices in August.
This morning, wires were crossed by electronic retail card spending and visitor arrival data from New Zealand. Expenditure on electronic retail cards in August was -19.8% month-on-month, compared to a consensus forecast of 1.7%. The number of visitors arriving in July fell to 767.8% from 1365.2% in the previous month. Date prints reflect a slowdown in growth as Covid cases increased in late summer, leading to the closure of Auckland and a significant reduction in Trans-Tasman travel. Downturns in data printouts could put pressure on the Kiwi dollar towards the end of the trading week.
NZD / USD technical forecast
NZD / USD is almost unchanged after two days of low gains. These gains are due to stronger sales at the beginning of the week. A 23.6% Fibonacci retracement appears to have supported prices to halt those week-end losses. The focus is on a 200-day simple moving average, with prices trading just below the high-moving moving average. Bears may try to lower prices if the couple is unable to withdraw the SMA.
NZD / USD daily schedule
The chart is created using TradingView
– Written by Thomas Westwater, DailyFX.com analyst
Be in touch Thomas, use the comments section or below @FxWestwaterTwitter