Wall Street, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Technical Analysis, Retailer Positioning – Call Points
- Retailer bets are a hint Dow Jones can be turned down, will S&P to follow?
- In both indices, upward trends persist, the S&P 500 monitors bearish signals
- For more information, see the recording of my webinar for this week’s session
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How is the IG Client Sentiment a controversial indicator?
At this week’s webinar, IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), a tool for assessing retailer positioning, I discussed the prospects of Dow Jones and the S&P 500. IGCS is usually a controversial indicator. For a detailed analysis, see the recording of the session above, where I discussed how to use IGCS in my trading strategy. I also addressed the main prospects for US benchmark stock indices.
Outlook for Dow Jones Sentiment – Bearish
The IGCS gauge means that about 37% of retailers are Dow Jones net long. Reverse exposure has increased by 10.87% and 15.50% per day and per week, respectively. The fact that traders are short tips may continue to rise. That said, recent mood swings warn that the Dow could turn lower.
From a technical point of view, Dow Jones futures consolidations continue at just under 61.8% of the Fibonacci extension 34269. Turning the focus down to the 20-day simple moving average and extension center 33552. Removing them would then reveal growing support from March 2020. However, this could maintain the dominant in the event of a short-term appeal.
Dow Jones futures agenda
S&P 500 Mood Outlook – Neutral
The IGCS gauge This means that about 32% of retail investors have S&P 500 net lengths. The excessive exposure has increased by 3.65% compared to yesterday, but has also decreased by 3.27% compared to a week ago. The fact that traders still have net opportunities indicates that prices are continuing to rise. However, the combination of this and recent mood swings indicates a neutral outlook for the index.
From a technical point of view, the S&P 500 is neutralDoji‘candlestick pattern. If it appears on an uptrend or downtrend, it may indicate a turning point. But this is not always the case. Confirmation is the key. Further negative closing can secure the Doji by opening the door lower. This would focus on a 20-day SMA and growing support from March 2020. The negative divergence in the RSI also indicates that the upswing is slowing, which may sometimes precede the lower one.
S&P 500 futures daily chart
* IG customer mood charts and positioning data used from April 27thth Report
– Written by Daniel Dubrovsky Strategist to DailyFX.com
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