Euro (EUR / USD) price, news and analysis:
- The mood in the euro area economy and industry exceeded expectations in April.
- EUR / USD around 1.2120 as US and EU first-quarter GDP converges.
The latest consumer and business confidence indicators for the eurozone surprised a positive trend today, indicating new optimism within the bloc, despite ongoing partial closures. The vaccination plan is gaining momentum and April data suggest that euro area growth may be faster than expected.
EUR/USD traders do not have to wait that long to see the latest growth figures in both the euro area and the US when the first look at first-quarter GDP comes out soon. The US number will be released today at 12:30 GMT and is expected to show a sharp rise that may exceed current market expectations of 6.1% QoQ. US figures have been strong late, according to Fed chairman Jerome Powell FOMC yesterday’s meeting. Mr Powell supplemented the economic outlook for his economic activity and employment figures, having recently strengthened at the last meeting yesterday, which may indicate that today’s figure is rising.
On Friday, Germany and the euro area will release their first-quarter GDP data, which is projected to show further weakness. Germany’s QoQ GDP will shrink by 1.5% in the first quarter from + 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020, while the euro area will shrink by 0.8% from -0.7% in the previous quarter. Germany’s GDP will be released at 08:00 GMT and the euro area number at 09:00 GMT.
For all economic data and events in the market, see DailyFX calendar.
EUR / USD will be in the range before today’s figure and possibly tomorrow’s issues, and will also be affected by end-of-month flows, which are projected to be negative US dollar and positive for the euro, which could lead to volatility over the weekend. The daily EUR / USD chart remains on a strong short-term uptrend, although the CCI indicator suggests that this move may be exaggerated at present. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-day simple moving average will meet in the region of around 1.1950, providing reasonable support, while further increases must take the February 25-month high firmly to the rally to continue.
EUR / USD daily price chart (June 2020 – April 29, 2021)
IG retailer datashow 33.07% of traders are net long, the ratio of short to long traders is 2.02: 1.We usually view the contradictory situation of the crowd and the fact that traders are short indicates a continuing rise in EUR / USD prices.
Traders are online as short as yesterday and last week, and the combination of the current mood and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR / USD-bullish contrarian trading principle.
What is your view EUR / USD – bullish or bearish ?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this section, or you can contact the author via Twitter @ nickcawley1.